Ghosts in the Fog

Newfoundland's population is changing - it's time we address it

Newfoundland's population has seen a change over the past few decades. The situation is causing concern, and leaving a foggy view of the future. Ashley Sheppard/Kicker

Alex Kennedy Kicker

Walk around the town of Fogo Island and you may notice something. The streets, once filled with children playing, are empty.

In St. John’s, Ken Pittman watches as his grandchildren run through the playground at Bannerman Park. He has seen a change in the population of Newfoundland, especially in the last few decades.

“I think that it’s pretty easy to see when you look around.”

Ken Pittman has seen the population change. He has noticed there aren't as many young people as there used to be. Melissa Wong/Kicker

Outmigration rates are on the rise, and our birth rates are the lowest in the country, with more deaths than births in 2018. Our economy is forcing people to leave because they can’t find a job where they live. A bleak picture is being painted, one Pittman thinks everyone should be looking at.

“For some people, that’s just a statistic,” Pittman said. “But when you’re in the midst of it, you can really see that it does make a difference. You can really see . . . people are quite a bit older.”

Newfoundland has faced population problems before. Some of the biggest moments in its history have come with blows to the numbers. The cod moratorium is one example and serves as a key point in the history of Newfoundland’s population.

Before the moratorium was called in 1992, the province’s population sat at close to 580,000 people, the highest since 1984. The following year saw the start of 17 consecutive years of population loss from 1993-2008, according to the Newfoundland and Labrador Statistics

Agency.

The moratorium also highlights the loss of the province’s young people. From 1992-2017, the number of residents aged 20-24 dropped by almost 42 per cent. In the same time period, residents aged 50-54 increased by almost 63 per cent. This trend continues today, as the province’s median age is the highest in the country at 45.7, according to Statista. This is expected to rise to 50 by 2036.

This graph shows the decrease of young working age people in the province. As a result, the middle-aged and senior population is growing. Source: Statistics Canada

According to Keith Storey, director of the Population Project at Memorial University, change in the province’s population can be broken down into three components: births, deaths and migration.

Keith Storey compares the population problem to climate change. It can't be stopped, we are now forced to adapt. Alex Kennedy/Kicker

"Either because of lower birth (rates) or people leaving the province, the population is aging and the population is also moving,” Storey said. “The ones that stay on are moving towards the Avalon Peninsula.”

These trends have significant implications for the economy and society, Storey said.

Caring for an aging population

As these trends continue, the stress put on Newfoundland’s health care system and the province’s health-care bill, will continue to rise. An increase in the amount of retirement-age people could bring major effects to the system, including fuller waiting rooms, a shortage of nurses and other medical professionals, and large increases in long-term care residents.

The aging population is also causing drops in the province’s birth rate, already the lowest in the country, according to the Canadian Institute of Child Health.

Storey compares the issue to climate change. Since the aging population can’t really be stopped, we are forced to have to adapt to the future and try to improve quality of life for seniors. This push for improvement is coming through education, with more clinics and practices offering information and resources to young families along with services to keep an aging population participating in society.

People in the province who are in need of better health care services often face the reality of having to move from rural communities to urban centres such as the Northeast Avalon Peninsula. And more people packing their bags to make the move, in turn, limits the access to services for people who choose to stay at home.

Rural areas across the province have seen a dip in population numbers. This drop puts the future of rural Newfoundland in jeopardy. Alex Kennedy/Kicker

However, not all communities are facing the same problems. The Bonavista Peninsula, for instance, has been going through a tourism boom in the past few years, fueled by its scenic views and the opening of new businesses in the region.

With over 65,000 tourists passing through last year, the town now needs to focus on how they can sustain this ongoing prosperity. It must try to figure out how to get people not only to visit but also to stay.

Preparing for the future

An island focused on fishing and natural resources has evolved into one dependent on the oil and the engineering fields. With this change in the job market, we are left to wonder if our education system is preparing its students to work in the province.

A change in Newfoundland's economy has the province starting to move away from the fishery. This change could shape the province's future. Alex Kennedy/Kicker

One of the harsh realities facing Newfoundland’s post-secondary education system involves its graduates leaving the province once they are trained to work. Many preparing to work offshore or in engineering face moving away: There are not enough jobs for the number of graduates in these fields. This forces a move to areas such as Alberta, Ontario or Nova Scotia.

When trying to figure out how to solve these problems, the word you often hear is diversification. How is the province going to diversify its economy and lower its dependence on oil?

While the move can sometimes be slow, recent surges in the province’s tech industry paints a promising picture. The industry has seen immense growth recently, and it is desperate for skilled workers in the province. As more startup companies emerge, such as Seaformatics Systems Inc. in St. John’s, older industries are becoming digitized and the shift to a more tech-savvy job sector has already begun.

While Newfoundlanders moving can’t necessarily be stopped entirely, the province has been looking into different ways of tackling population loss and bringing people to the province. One of these ways includes the encouragement of immigration to the province. Organizations such as the Association for New Canadians (ANC) play a key role in helping immigrants who come to Newfoundland and Labrador get established and become part of the community. While the group is working on how to retain immigrants, the ANC says offering resources like networking, work opportunities and a safe place to raise a family, is key in keeping immigrants in the province.

Memorial University is also working with its international students. Post-secondary training, along with workshops in language and writing, are helping international students become part of the community and preparing them to work and possibly stay.

Like the Narrows on a June morning, the future of the province’s population is foggy. Where we will be when the fog clears is uncertain.

Keith Storey sees this problem, and says it’s important to address it sooner rather than later.

“It's an absolute necessity to address this head on. Otherwise if we don't, then we're going to be in very serious trouble in the not-too-distant future.